California's Subject Estimate comes in at 3.20 billion pounds
California dropped from the high 90’s last week to an unexpected 6” of snow in the Sierras this week. Temperatures throughout the valley have fallen to the low 50’s at night to a daytime high of 70 degrees. No one is complaining after a feel of the summer heat last week.
As reported a week ago, April shipments were a fantastic 250 million pounds, up 38% over last year and driven by export sales. The excitement was capped as the subjective estimate came out just 24 hours later suggesting a 3.20 billion pound crop coming in August. This will mostly keep a reign on what had been firming prices for the industry prior to the report, hoping to recoup losses from the low prices thus far this crop year.
The debate has already started on the prospect of a new crop being as big as 3.20 billion pounds. With California already having one of the driest seasons in decades and the major cost of water for many of the growers the likelihood seems doubtful. However, until we see otherwise, we will have to market it as if it will be.
- Next shipping report: June 10, 2021
- Objective Estimate: July 12, 2021
- Final shipping report for the 2020 crop year: August 12, 2021